{"id":727,"date":"2022-08-10T11:17:41","date_gmt":"2022-08-10T11:17:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eco.prodecon.dk\/?p=727"},"modified":"2026-08-06T12:10:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T11:10:20","slug":"climate-endgame-risk-of-human-extinction-dangerously-underexplored","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eco.prodecon.dk\/index.php\/2022\/08\/10\/climate-endgame-risk-of-human-extinction-dangerously-underexplored\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate endgame: risk of human extinction \u2018dangerously underexplored\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\"PoweredThis article titled “Climate endgame: risk of human extinction \u2018dangerously underexplored\u2019” was written by Damian Carrington Environment editor, for The Guardian on Monday 1st August 2022 19.00 UTC<\/a><\/p>

The risk of global societal collapse or human extinction has been \u201cdangerously underexplored\u201d, climate scientists have warned in an analysis.<\/p>

They call such a catastrophe the \u201cclimate endgame\u201d. Though it had a small chance of occurring, given the uncertainties in future emissions and the climate system, cataclysmic scenarios could not be ruled out, they said.<\/p>

\u201cFacing a future of accelerating climate change while blind to worst-case scenarios is naive risk management at best and fatally foolish at worst,\u201d the scientists said, adding that there were \u201cample reasons\u201d to suspect global heating could result in an apocalyptic disaster.<\/p>

The international team of experts argue the world needs to start preparing for the possibility of the climate endgame. \u201cAnalysing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanise action, improve resilience, and inform policy,\u201d they said.<\/p>

Explorations in the 1980s of the nuclear winter that would follow a nuclear war spurred public concern and disarmament efforts, the researchers said. The analysis proposes a research agenda, including what they call the \u201cfour horsemen\u201d of the climate endgame: famine, extreme weather, war and disease.<\/p>

They also called for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce a special report on the issue. The IPCC report on the impacts of just 1.5C<\/a> of heating drove a \u201cgroundswell of public concern\u201d, they said.<\/p>

\u201cThere are plenty of reasons to believe climate change could become catastrophic, even at modest levels of warming,\u201d said Dr Luke Kemp at the University of Cambridge\u2019s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, who led the analysis. \u201cClimate change has played a role in every mass extinction event. It has helped fell empires and shaped history.<\/p>

\u201cPaths to disaster are not limited to the direct impacts of high temperatures, such as extreme weather events. Knock-on effects such as financial crises, conflict and new disease outbreaks could trigger other calamities.\u201d<\/p>

The analysis is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/a> and was reviewed by a dozen scientists. It argues that the consequences of global heating beyond 3C have been underexamined, with few quantitative estimates of the total impacts. \u201cWe know least about the scenarios that matter most,\u201d Kemp said.<\/p>

A thorough risk assessment would consider how risks spread, interacted and amplified, but had not been attempted, the scientists said. \u201cYet this is how risk unfolds in the real world,\u201d they said. \u201cFor example, a cyclone destroys electrical infrastructure, leaving a population vulnerable to an ensuing deadly heatwave.\u201d The Covid pandemic underlined the need to examine rare but high-impact global risks, they added.<\/p>

Particularly concerning are tipping points, where a small rise in global temperature results in a big change in the climate, such as huge carbon emissions from an Amazon rainforest suffering major droughts and fires. Tipping points could trigger others in a cascade<\/a> and some remained little studied, they said, such as the abrupt loss of stratocumulus cloud decks<\/a> that could cause an additional 8C of global warming.<\/p>

The researchers warn that climate breakdown could exacerbate or trigger other catastrophic risks, such as international wars or infectious disease pandemics, and worsen existing vulnerabilities such as poverty, crop failures and lack of water. The analysis suggests superpowers may one day fight over geoengineering plans to reflect sunlight or the right to emit carbon.<\/p>

\u201cThere is a striking overlap between currently vulnerable states and future areas of extreme warming,\u201d the scientists said. \u201cIf current political fragility does not improve significantly in the coming decades, then a belt of instability with potentially serious ramifications could occur.\u201d<\/p>

There were further good reasons to be concerned about the potential of a global climate catastrophe, the scientists said: \u201cThere are warnings from history. Climate change has played a role in the collapse or transformation of numerous previous societies<\/a> and in each of the five mass extinction events in Earth\u2019s history.\u201d<\/p>